Export control of rare earth resources: policy changes and impact on global supply chain

I. Introduction
The strategic position of rare earths

Definition of rare earth elements (17 key metals) and their irreplaceability in high-tech industries such as new energy, national defense, and electronic information

Global distribution of rare earth reserves: resource endowment differences among China (35%), Vietnam, Brazil, Russia, etc.

Research background

China’s historical status as the world’s largest rare earth producer (accounting for 70% of global production in 2022) and exporter

Trends in major economies in recent years to strengthen the security of key mineral supply chains

II. Evolution of global rare earth export control policies
(I) China’s policy development trajectory
Initial stage (2000-2010)

Export quota system and WTO dispute cases (US, EU and Japan v. China’s rare earth export restrictions)

Adjustment stage (2011-2020)

Resource tax reform, environmental protection standard improvement and total production control indicators

Rare earth enterprise group integration (formation of the six major rare earth groups)

New era (2021 to present)

Legislative process of the “Rare Earth Management Regulations”

Expansion of technology export ban (gallium and germanium related technology control in 2023)

Strategic management under the “dual carbon” goal

(II) International policy response

United States

Rare earth supply chain reconstruction plan of the “Defense Production Act”

MP Materials and other local projects are recovering

EU

Critical Raw Materials Act and 2030 self-supply target

Cooperative development with Greenland and other places

Japan

Diversified procurement strategy (cooperation with Lynas, Australia)

Breakthrough in urban mine recycling technology

III. Analysis of the impact on the global supply chain

(I) Short-term impact

Price fluctuations: In 2022, the price of NdFeB permanent magnet materials increased by 120% year-on-year

Inventory competition: 3-6 months of safety inventory for multinational companies has become the new normal

Logistics reconstruction: Stress test of alternative transportation channels such as the China-Myanmar border

(II) Medium- and long-term structural changes

Supply pattern reshaping

Overseas project progress: Mountain Pass production capacity increased to 40,000 tons/year

Secondary supply system: Honda’s 100% recycling plan for hybrid vehicles in 2025

Technology substitution accelerated

Rare earth-free motor research and development (Technology route adjustment of Toyota, BMW and other automakers)

Material reduction trend (rare earth usage per fan decreased by 40%)

Trade model innovation

Processing link transfer (Lynas rare earth separation plant case in Malaysia)

Bundled investment (resource-for-technology cooperation model)

IV. Future trends and suggestions
Policy outlook

Dynamic export licensing system that may be implemented in China

National International competition for rare earth pricing power and the possible concept of “Rare Earth OPEC”

Corporate response strategies

Vertical integration: Tesla’s upstream mineral investment enlightenment

Technology reserves: Patent layout for efficient utilization of rare earths (more than 4,000 patent barriers of Sumitomo, Japan)

International cooperation space

Co-construction of rare earth clean extraction technology standards

Construction of cross-border recycling system (learning from the experience of EU battery passport)

V. Conclusion
Rare earth control policies are driving the transformation of the global supply chain from “efficiency first” to “safety first”. This process will be accompanied by multiple interactions of technological innovation, geopolitical games and industrial reconstruction. The next 5-10 years may become a key window period for the formation of the global key mineral governance system.

Extension suggestions:

Add specific data: such as the change curve of rare earth export volume in recent years, and the comparison of dependence of major importing countries

Add case analysis: such as the supply chain adjustment example of a new energy vehicle company

Supplementary charts: global rare earth industry chain map, policy timeline and other visual content

Discuss the impact of digital technology: the application potential of blockchain in rare earth traceability

It is necessary to further focus on a certain aspect (such as the impact of a specific country/industry), and provide more detailed special analysis.