由 caicai8478 Abstract
With the acceleration of global trade digitalization and supply chain transformation, China’s dual customs clearance model for exports is facing new development opportunities. This article explores the future development trends of China’s dual customs clearance for exports based on three dimensions: policy environment, technological innovation, and market demand. The study finds that digital customs clearance, deepening regional economic integration, intelligent supervision, and green customs clearance will become the main development directions. Furthermore, the application of blockchain, artificial intelligence (AI), and big data technologies will significantly improve the efficiency and transparency of dual customs clearance. This article, combined with case studies, proposes potential challenges and countermeasures for China’s dual customs clearance for exports in the future, providing reference for businesses and policymakers.
Keywords: China’s exports; dual customs clearance; digital customs; intelligent supervision; blockchain
Introduction
In recent years, China’s foreign trade has continued to expand, with total import and export value reaching 41.76 trillion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 0.2% (according to the General Administration of Customs). Against the backdrop of global supply chain restructuring and the rise of digital trade, traditional customs clearance models are no longer able to meet the needs for efficient, compliant, and low-cost customs clearance. As a solution for optimizing cross-border logistics, dual customs clearance is gradually evolving towards intelligence, standardization, and internationalization.
This article explores the future development path of China’s dual customs clearance for exports by analyzing policy trends, technological innovation cases, and market research data. The research finds that over the next five years, digitalization and automation will become the core drivers of dual customs clearance. Furthermore, the deepening of regional free trade agreements (such as the RCEP) will promote further harmonization of customs clearance standards. Furthermore, green customs clearance and sustainable development concepts will also influence future policymaking for dual customs clearance.
I. The Rise of Digital and Intelligent Dual Customs Clearance
1.1 Application of Blockchain Technology in Dual Customs Clearance
Blockchain technology’s decentralized, immutable, and traceable nature makes it a valuable tool for optimizing dual customs clearance processes. Currently, China Customs has piloted blockchain customs clearance systems in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and the Hainan Free Trade Port, enabling real-time sharing of export declaration, logistics tracking, and customs clearance data with importing countries. For example, Shenzhen Customs’ “Blockchain + Cross-Border Trade” platform has reduced customs clearance time for businesses by 50% and increased document review efficiency by 70%.
In the future, with the advancement of global customs blockchain alliances (such as the WCO’s CBRA project), China’s dual customs clearance for exports is expected to achieve data mutual recognition with major trading partners, further reducing duplicate declarations and manual review.
1.2 AI and Big Data-Driven Intelligent Customs Clearance
Artificial intelligence (AI) has enormous potential in commodity classification, risk analysis, and automated declarations. For example, Alibaba International Station’s AI-powered customs declaration system can automatically identify HS codes with 95% accuracy, significantly reducing manual errors. In the future, AI may be further applied to:
Intelligent risk warning: By analyzing historical data, it predicts the inspection priorities of the target country’s customs and optimizes declaration strategies in advance.
Automated compliance checking: Leveraging natural language processing (NLP) technology, it automatically compares differences between Chinese and foreign regulations to reduce compliance risks.
1.3 Cloud Computing and “Single Window” Upgrades
China Customs’ “Single Window” already covers all ports nationwide. In the future, it may evolve into cloud-based collaborative customs clearance, allowing exporters and overseas importers to complete two-way declarations through the same platform. For example, the “Cross-border Trade Digital Twin System” currently being tested in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone allows companies to automatically generate import documents that meet the requirements of the target country after completing export declarations in China, achieving “single declaration, dual customs clearance.”
II. Regional Economic Integration Promotes Harmonization of Customs Clearance Standards
2.1 RCEP’s Impact on Double Customs Clearance
The implementation of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) has promoted tariff mutual recognition and simplified rules of origin between China and ASEAN, Japan, South Korea, and other countries. In the future, RCEP member countries may establish a unified electronic customs clearance platform to reduce duplicate inspections. For example, the Pingxiang Port in Guangxi has piloted the “China-Vietnam Smart Port,” enabling cross-border data exchange and reducing customs clearance time for perishable goods such as fruit from three days to three hours.
2.2 Deepening China-EU Customs Cooperation
The EU is advancing its “Smart Customs” initiative (2025-2029), and China Customs may collaborate with it to promote electronic mutual recognition of double customs clearance between China and the EU. For example, the “Customs-Railway Link” project for the China-Europe Railway Express has already achieved partial data sharing and may be expanded to sea and air transport in the future.
2.3 Customs Clearance Facilitation for Africa and Belt and Road Countries
China and African countries are promoting mutual recognition of Authorized Economic Operators (AEOs). In the future, they may establish Belt and Road customs clearance green channels to prioritize the processing of goods undergoing dual customs clearance. For example, the “China-Africa Single Window” pilot program at the Port of Mombasa in Kenya has increased customs clearance efficiency for Chinese exports by 40%.
III. Green Customs Clearance and Sustainable Development Trends
3.1 The Impact of Low-Carbon Customs Clearance Policies
The implementation of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and the US Clean Competition Act (CCA) requires exporters to provide carbon emissions data. In the future, China Customs may introduce a “green dual customs clearance” model, integrating carbon footprint accounting into the customs clearance process to help companies meet international environmental protection requirements.
3.2 Sustainable Logistics and Customs Clearance Optimization
In the future, dual customs clearance may be combined with multimodal transport (such as sea + rail) to reduce carbon emissions. For example, Chongqing’s “New Land-Sea Corridor” project, by optimizing customs clearance processes, seamlessly connects the China-Europe Express with Southeast Asian shipping, reducing the logistics carbon footprint by 15%.
IV. Future Challenges and Response Strategies
4.1 Data Security and Cross-Border Privacy Protection
With the digitization of dual customs clearance, the security of cross-border data flows has become increasingly prominent. China may introduce “Regulations on the Administration of Cross-Border Data Customs Clearance” to ensure the compliance of corporate data transmission.
4.2 Adaptability Challenges for Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises
SMEs may face insufficient technological investment. It is recommended that the government provide subsidies to promote the widespread use of SaaS-based customs clearance tools (such as Alibaba Cloud Customs Clearance).
4.3 International Political and Economic Uncertainty
The rise of trade protectionism may affect the mutual recognition mechanism for dual customs clearance. Enterprises need to develop diversified market strategies to reduce their dependence on a single market.
V. Conclusion
In the future, China’s export dual customs clearance will demonstrate four major trends: digitalization, intelligentization, regional coordination, and green development. Blockchain, AI, and cloud computing technologies will significantly improve efficiency, while international cooperation such as the RCEP and the Belt and Road Initiative will promote standardization. Enterprises should proactively deploy intelligent customs clearance systems, and the government should strengthen policy support for international data mutual recognition and green customs clearance to enhance China’s export competitiveness.