由 caicai8478 Amid the pressing global climate change agenda, the decarbonization challenge facing the aviation industry stands out. Unlike the automotive industry, electrification or hydrogenation of aircraft is difficult to achieve in the short term. Therefore, Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) is widely considered the most critical tool for achieving net-zero carbon emissions in the aviation industry in the medium to long term. However, SAF’s development is mired in a severe supply and demand dilemma, and its path forward relies heavily on strong policy support from countries around the world.
I. Why SAF? The “Lifeline” for Aviation Decarbonization
“Drop-in” Feature: SAF’s greatest advantage lies in its near-identical chemical properties to existing jet fuel (Jet A-1), allowing for direct blending without requiring any modifications to aircraft engines, fuel systems, or supply chain infrastructure.
Immense Emission Reduction Potential: Over its entire lifecycle, SAF can reduce carbon emissions by up to 80% compared to traditional jet fuel, while also reducing sulfur oxides and particulate matter emissions, improving air quality.
Diversified Technology Pathways: SAF raw materials come from a wide range of sources, including:
Esters and fatty acids (HEFA): Utilizing waste oils and cooking oil as raw materials, this is the most mature and mainstream production technology currently.
Cellulosic biomass: Utilizing agricultural waste and forestry residues.
Power-to-Liquid (PtL): Synthesizing fuels from green hydrogen and captured CO2 is the ultimate solution for achieving completely zero-carbon SAF in the future.
II. Core Challenge: The Dilemma of Supply and Demand Imbalance
Despite its promising prospects, the SAF industry is still in its early stages of development and faces a classic “chicken and egg” dilemma.
(I) Supply-side Dilemma: Small volumes, high prices, and difficulty in scalability
Severely Insufficient Production Capacity: Currently, global SAF production accounts for only 0.1%-0.2% of total aviation fuel demand. Even if all currently under construction and planned capacity is fully operational, there will still be a significant gap to the 10% share target set by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) by 2030.
High Production Costs: SAF production costs are typically two to four times higher than conventional jet fuel. This is due to the following reasons:
Technology Maturity: Aside from the HEFA pathway, other more sustainable technologies (such as PtL) are still in the demonstration phase, posing high investment risks.
Feedstock Collection and Competition: The collection, transportation, and pre-processing of feedstocks such as waste oils and fats are costly, and they compete with other industries like biodiesel.
Large Initial Investment: New SAF refineries require significant capital expenditures.
Feedstock Sustainability and Scalability: Ensuring large-scale feedstock supply without competing with food and harming the environment (e.g., avoiding deforestation) is a significant challenge. Future growth must rely on advanced, non-food feedstock technologies.
(II) Demand-Side Dilemma: Airlines Are “Hesitant” or “Unwilling” to Use SAF
Lack of Cost Competitiveness: The aviation industry operates on thin profit margins and is extremely cost-sensitive. Voluntarily shouldering several times higher fuel costs would render airlines uncompetitive, especially on long-haul routes.
Lack of a “Green Premium” Sharing Mechanism: Who will bear the price difference between SAF and conventional jet fuel (i.e., the “green premium”)? Is it airlines, consumers (through fares), shippers, or the government? Currently, there’s no clear burden-sharing mechanism.
Risk of long-term offtake agreements: Due to the unstable supply of SAF, airlines struggle to sign long-term, large-scale purchase agreements, which is precisely the guarantee that manufacturers need to invest in new capacity.
III. Key to Breaking the SAF Supply and Demand Stalemate: Multi-Level Policy Drive and Market Incentives
Breaking the SAF supply and demand deadlock cannot rely solely on spontaneous market forces; it requires intervention and promotion through a robust, multi-level policy framework.
Mandatory Directives and Blended Quotas:
This is the most core and effective driving force. For example, the EU’s “RefuelEU Aviation” regulation mandates that, starting in 2025, flights departing from EU airports must contain a gradually increasing proportion of SAF in their fuel (from 2% to 70% by 2050). This policy creates certain market demand for SAF, directly stimulating investment in production.
Economic Incentives and Subsidies:
Production-side Subsidies: For example, the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) provides a tax credit of $1.25-1.75 per gallon for SAF production, significantly reducing production costs and improving its market competitiveness.
Consumer-side Subsidies: Subsidies or tax breaks are provided to airlines using SAF, reducing their costs.
Investment Support: The government provides loan guarantees or direct financial support for the construction and R&D of SAF production facilities.
Carbon Pricing and Emissions Trading Systems (ETS):
Including the aviation industry in carbon markets (such as the EU ETS) or implementing a carbon tax would increase the cost of traditional fossil jet fuel, thereby increasing the relative economic attractiveness of SAF and reducing the “green premium.”
Support for Research and Development (R&D):
Government funding for R&D and demonstration projects on next-generation SAF technologies (particularly PtL) is crucial to addressing technical challenges, reducing future costs, and ensuring the sustainability and scalability of feedstock.
Building a Collaborative Ecosystem:
Policies should encourage collaboration across the entire value chain, including energy companies, airlines, airports, shippers, and financial institutions, to jointly invest and share risks. For example, through “advance purchase agreements,” large shippers could commit to purchasing freight services using SAF, providing airlines with guaranteed demand.
IV. Conclusion: Policy is the Spark that Ignites the SAF Revolution
The supply and demand dilemma for sustainable aviation fuels is essentially the inevitable initial pains of transitioning from a traditional high-carbon energy system to a green, low-carbon one. The strategic value of SAF is globally recognized, but the road to commercial-scale deployment remains long.
Currently, policy holds the only key to breaking the impasse and activating the market. Mandatory blending mandates create a demand base, economic subsidies reduce the cost cliff, and R&D support charts the course for the future. Only through a set of combined, stable and long-term policy frameworks can we give investors sufficient confidence and attract huge amounts of capital into the production field, thereby expanding production capacity and reducing costs, and ultimately forming a virtuous cycle of “policies driving the market, the market driving innovation, and innovation feeding back to the market”, helping the global aviation industry truly fly towards a green future.