Global Christmas Congestion Alert: European and American Ports Paralyzed—How to Flexibly Switch Between Air and Sea Transport?

Every fourth quarter, the global logistics industry enters the “Christmas sprint mode.” However, in the 2024 Christmas season, an unprecedented port congestion crisis is sweeping the European and American markets. The waiting time for container ships to berth at the Port of Los Angeles and Long Beach has exceeded 14 days, the yard utilization rate at the Port of Rotterdam and Hamburg has soared to 98%, and a large number of Christmas gifts, electronic products, and household goods are stranded at ports, facing the risk of “not being delivered before Christmas.” For enterprises relying on cross-border trade, the traditional single sea transport model is no longer viable, and flexible switching between air and sea transport has become the key to breaking the deadlock. This article will deeply analyze the core causes of port congestion in Europe and the United States, dissect the underlying logic of switching between air and sea transport, and provide scenario-specific, actionable strategies to help enterprises seize the initiative in the Christmas logistics battle.

I. Christmas Season Port Congestion in Europe and America: Current Situation, Causes, and Impacts

(I) Current Situation: Unprecedented Port Stranding

The 2024 Christmas season port congestion in Europe and America presents three major characteristics: “wide scope, long duration, and severe degree.” According to data from global shipping consulting firm Drewry, as of the end of October, a total of 126 container ships were waiting to berth at anchorages outside the Port of Los Angeles and Long Beach on the U.S. West Coast, with an average waiting time of 14.3 days—an increase of 82% compared to the same period in 2023. On the U.S. East Coast, the waiting time at the Port of New York and New Jersey has also exceeded 10 days, reaching a 5-year high. In Europe, the container yard capacity utilization rate at the Port of Rotterdam has reached 98%, the queue length of truckers for port evacuation at the Port of Hamburg exceeds 5 kilometers, and the average detention time of containers at the Port of Felixstowe is 8 days, far exceeding the normal level of 2-3 days.

More critically, congestion has spread from ports to inland transportation networks. Highway freight volume in California has increased by 23% year-on-year, but there is a shortage of 80,000 truck drivers, extending the time for containers to be transported from ports to inland warehouses to 5-7 days. Low water levels in some sections of the Rhine River in Europe have affected shipping, further exacerbating inland transportation pressure. A large number of goods marked “Christmas urgent” are trapped in the transportation chain. Statistics show that as of early November, about 30% of Christmas season goods are still stranded at European and American ports or in transit, facing the risk of missing the peak sales season.

(II) Root Causes: Superimposed Outbreak of Multiple Factors

The port congestion during this Christmas season is not accidental but a concentrated outbreak of multiple factors such as global supply chain restructuring, demand fluctuations, and inadequate infrastructure:

1. Concentrated Demand Outbreak and Delayed Orders: Driven by the moderate recovery of the global economy, retail orders for the 2024 European and American Christmas season have increased by 18% year-on-year, with surging demand for categories such as electronic products, home decorations, and fast fashion. However, due to factors such as fluctuations in raw material prices and geopolitical risks in the first half of the year, many enterprises delayed order production and shipment until September-October, resulting in a concentrated influx of goods into ports, exceeding the handling capacity of ports.
2. Aging Infrastructure and Labor Shortages: The infrastructure of major European and American ports is generally aging. The gantry crane equipment at the Port of Los Angeles and Long Beach has an average service life of 25 years, and the loading and unloading efficiency is only 60% of that of Asian ports. At the same time, the European and American logistics industries have long faced labor shortages—there is a shortage of 12,000 port workers in the United States and more than 150,000 truck drivers in Europe—leading to a significant decline in loading, unloading, and port evacuation efficiency.
3. Route Adjustments Brought by Supply Chain Restructuring: In recent years, to reduce reliance on the single Chinese market, some enterprises have shifted their production bases to Southeast Asia, Mexico, and other regions. This has transformed shipping routes from direct “China-Europe/US” routes to transit routes such as “Southeast Asia/Mexico-China-Europe/US,” extending transportation links and increasing port transit pressure. In addition, after the Red Sea crisis, some ships have chosen to detour around the Cape of Good Hope, further intensifying the berthing pressure at European and American ports.
4. Weather and Geopolitical Interference: Frequent hurricanes in the North Atlantic in the autumn of 2024 caused delays in multiple transatlantic routes. Torrential rains and floods in some parts of Europe affected the smooth flow of inland transportation corridors. At the same time, Europe and the United States have strengthened import supervision on some categories, leading to a decline in customs inspection efficiency, which has indirectly exacerbated port congestion.

(III) Fatal Impacts on Christmas Season Trade

For cross-border enterprises, the consequences of port congestion can be described as “devastating”:

• Sales Losses: The Christmas season is the peak season for the European and American retail markets, accounting for 30%-40% of annual sales. Failure to deliver goods on time means enterprises will miss the sales peak and even face order cancellations. Data from a cross-border e-commerce platform shows that as of mid-November, more than 20% of Christmas season orders have been canceled due to logistics delays, resulting in direct losses exceeding 1 billion US dollars.
• Soaring Costs: To unblock goods as soon as possible, enterprises are forced to pay high demurrage charges, warehousing fees, and expedited transportation fees. The demurrage fee at the Port of Los Angeles has increased from 100 US dollars per container per day to 300 US dollars. Some enterprises have chosen to switch sea-transported goods to air transport to meet the Christmas delivery deadline, leading to a 3-5 times surge in transportation costs.
• Damaged Reputation: For long-term cooperative brands, logistics delays will seriously affect consumer trust. Surveys show that 75% of European and American consumers say they will no longer purchase products from a brand if Christmas gifts are not delivered on time, resulting in a significant decline in brand loyalty.

II. Core Logic of Switching Between Air and Sea Transport: Not an “Either/Or” Choice, But an “Optimal Combination”

Faced with the port congestion crisis, flexible switching between air and sea transport has become an inevitable choice for enterprises. However, switching is not simply “abandoning sea transport for air transport,” but formulating an optimal plan of “sea transport as the mainstay and air transport as a supplement” or “sea-air transport” based on factors such as product characteristics, cost budgets, and delivery cycles. The core logic lies in “balancing efficiency, cost, and risk,” which can be considered from the following three dimensions:

(I) Clarify the Core Judgment Criteria for Switching

When deciding whether to switch between air and sea transport, enterprises should first clarify three core questions to avoid blind decisions:

1. Is the Delivery Cycle Controllable? If goods need to be delivered before December 15 (the final ordering deadline for the European and American Christmas shopping season) and the current sea transport detention time has exceeded 10 days, enterprises should resolutely switch to air transport. If the delivery cycle can be extended to January of the following year, they can choose to continue with sea transport and reduce risks by increasing warehousing space or negotiating delayed delivery.
2. Product Value and Profit Margin: High-value, high-profit goods (such as high-end electronic products, luxury goods, and customized gifts) are suitable for priority switching to air transport, even if the air transport cost is high—they can still cover the cost through sales prices, and the loss from delays is greater. Low-value, low-profit goods (such as daily necessities and low-cost toys) may have air transport costs exceeding the value of the goods themselves; enterprises can choose the “sea transport + overseas warehouse stocking” model or accept partial order delays.
3. Inventory and Order Structure: If enterprises have a certain amount of inventory in European and American overseas warehouses, they can first use overseas warehouse goods to meet urgent orders and use sea-transported detained goods as subsequent replenishment. If orders are mainly small-batch wholesale and retail, direct air transport is suitable. For large-batch bulk orders, the “sea transport + air transport batch delivery” method can be adopted—first deliver part of the goods by air to meet urgent needs, and supplement the remaining goods by sea.

(II) Core Characteristics Comparison and Adaptable Scenarios of Air and Sea Transport

To achieve flexible switching, it is necessary to first clarify the core differences between air and sea transport, and accurately match them according to product and order characteristics:

(III) Core Principles of Switching: “Advance Planning, Batch Delivery, Dynamic Adjustment”

Successful switching between air and sea transport is inseparable from scientific planning and dynamic adjustment:

1. Plan Switching Thresholds in Advance: Enterprises should set “trigger conditions” for switching in advance. For example: automatically activate the air transport supplementary mechanism when the port waiting time exceeds 10 days, sea transport time is delayed by more than 50%, or urgent orders account for more than 30%, to avoid chaos caused by temporary decisions.
2. Adopt the “Batch Delivery” Strategy: For large-batch orders, goods can be divided into “urgent parts” and “regular parts.” The urgent parts are delivered quickly by air, and the regular parts are transported by sea to reduce costs—both meeting time requirements and controlling cost expenditures.
3. Dynamically Monitor Logistics Status: Use logistics tracking systems to real-time monitor port congestion, ship navigation status, and air transport capacity availability, and adjust transportation plans according to actual conditions. For example, if congestion at a certain port eases, some air transport orders can be switched to sea transport; if air transport capacity is tight, book capacity in advance or choose sea-air transport.

III. Practical Strategies: Air-Sea Transport Switching Plans for Different Scenarios

(I) Scenario 1: Goods Already Stranded at Ports, Urgent Replenishment for Christmas Orders

If goods are already stranded at European and American ports and cannot be delivered on time, enterprises can adopt a combined plan of “air transport replenishment + subsequent handling of stranded goods”:

1. Urgent Air Transport Replenishment: Screen core best-selling Christmas products (such as holiday gifts, electronic products) and replenish them through airlines’ “Christmas urgent routes” to ensure delivery before December 15. Choosing logistics providers with charter resources and strong customs clearance capabilities (such as DHL, FedEx, Sinotrans) can shorten the transportation time to 3-5 days. At the same time, prepare complete customs clearance documents in advance (commercial invoice, packing list, certificate of origin, holiday product description) to speed up customs clearance.
2. Handling of Stranded Goods: For non-urgent stranded goods, negotiate to transfer them to less congested ports (such as the Port of Houston in the United States, the Port of Antwerp in Europe) or temporarily store them in bonded warehouses near the port for delivery after the Christmas season. If goods have arrived at the port but cannot be evacuated in a timely manner, entrust local logistics providers to adopt expedited transportation from “port to warehouse” (such as expedited trucking, rail intermodal transport) to avoid high fees from long-term port detention.

Case: A cross-border e-commerce enterprise specializing in Christmas decorative lighting shipped goods to the Port of Los Angeles by sea in early October, and the goods were stranded for more than 12 days due to port congestion. The enterprise resolutely launched air transport replenishment, shipping core best-selling LED Christmas lights through FedEx’s air transport urgent route, which arrived at the U.S. warehouse within 3 days, timely meeting retail order needs. The stranded regular lighting was transferred to the Port of Houston and delivered at the end of December as post-holiday replenishment—avoiding Christmas season sales losses while controlling air transport costs.

(II) Scenario 2: Undispatched Orders, Balancing Time and Cost

For undispatched Christmas season orders, enterprises can adopt the “sea transport as the mainstay + air transport as a supplement” or “sea-air transport” plan according to the urgency of the orders:

1. Sea Transport as the Mainstay, Air Transport as a Supplement: For large-batch, non-urgent orders, prioritize sea transport, but ship 1-2 months in advance to reserve sufficient buffer time for congestion. At the same time, reserve 20%-30% of the order volume as “emergency reserves” through air transport, and immediately activate air transport replenishment if sea transport experiences severe delays.
2. Sea-Air Transport: Sea-air transport is the optimal choice for balancing cost and time efficiency. The process is “sea transport from Chinese ports to transit ports (such as Dubai, Singapore) → air transport from transit ports to European and American destinations,” with a transportation time of about 15-20 days and a cost of only 50%-60% of pure air transport. It is suitable for orders with time requirements between sea and air transport, such as goods needing to be delivered in early December.

When choosing sea-air transport, pay attention to two points: first, select logistics providers with stable transit channels to ensure smooth connection of goods at transit ports and avoid secondary delays; second, confirm the customs clearance policies of transit ports in advance and prepare documents required for transit to avoid delays due to unclear classification.

Case: A home furnishing enterprise needed to deliver a batch of Christmas-themed home goods to European customers before December 10. Pure sea transport could not guarantee time efficiency, while pure air transport was too costly. Finally, the enterprise chose the sea-air transport plan of “China-Singapore (sea transport) → Singapore-Hamburg (air transport)”—the transportation time was 18 days, the cost was 40% lower than pure air transport, and the goods were delivered on time, successfully meeting customer needs.

(III) Scenario 3: Bulk Orders, Controlling Costs and Risks

For large-batch, high-value bulk orders (such as Christmas stock purchased by retailers from suppliers), a combined plan of “phased transport + overseas warehouse stocking” can be adopted:

1. Phased Transport: Divide the order into three batches: the first batch (30%) is shipped by sea in early September to ensure delivery by the end of October as initial stock; the second batch (40%) is shipped by sea-air transport in late September to arrive in mid-November for stock replenishment; the third batch (30%) is shipped by air or sea in mid-October according to market sales data to flexibly adjust inventory.
2. Overseas Warehouse Stocking and Allocation: Store part of the goods in European and American overseas warehouses in advance (such as Amazon FBA warehouses in the United States, CDEK warehouses in Europe) to achieve local delivery, shortening the delivery time to 1-3 days and completely avoiding port congestion risks. For goods already stored in overseas warehouses, cross-warehouse allocation can be carried out according to sales conditions in different regions to optimize inventory distribution.

Case: An electronic product supplier provided 100,000 pieces of Christmas mobile phone accessories to a large European retailer. The enterprise adopted the “phased transport + overseas warehouse stocking” plan: 30,000 pieces were shipped by sea to the Hamburg overseas warehouse in Germany in early September, 40,000 pieces were shipped by sea-air transport to the London overseas warehouse in the UK in late September, and 30,000 pieces were supplemented by air to high-sales overseas warehouses in France and Italy in mid-October according to sales data. Finally, all goods were delivered before December 5, and customer satisfaction increased by 30% through local delivery from overseas warehouses.

IV. Key Guarantees: Core Matters Needing Attention During Switching

(I) Lock in Capacity Resources in Advance

The Christmas season is a peak period for air and sea transport, with tight capacity and rising prices being the norm. Enterprises need to confirm capacity with logistics providers 1-2 months in advance, especially air transport capacity. They can lock in capacity by signing long-term cooperation agreements or paying deposits to avoid being unable to book capacity temporarily or facing skyrocketing prices.

(II) Optimize Customs Clearance Processes

Customs clearance delays are a common pain point in cross-border