由 caicai8478 The demand and export prospects of sensitive goods in the Southeast Asian market need to be comprehensively judged in combination with the regional political and economic environment, industrial characteristics and trade policies. The following is from four dimensions: demand analysis, key categories, challenges and prospects:
- Core demand areas for sensitive goods
Electronic and communication equipment
Demand drive: Southeast Asia’s digital economy is developing rapidly, and there is a strong demand for 5G equipment, data center components (such as Huawei servers), and security monitoring (Hikvision products), but some countries restrict procurement on the grounds of “national security”.
Typical case: Vietnam requires telecom operators to gradually replace Chinese equipment in 2023, but the local technology gap leads to slow actual implementation.
New energy industry chain
Photovoltaic components: Vietnam, Malaysia and other countries rely on Chinese photovoltaic panels for renewable energy transformation (accounting for more than 70% of Southeast Asian imports), but the “anti-circumvention investigation” in Europe and the United States affects re-export trade.
Lithium batteries: Indonesia’s nickel ore processing policy attracts investment from Chinese battery companies, but it must meet the localization rate requirements (such as 40% from 2024).
Dual-use materials
UAVs: Agricultural plant protection drones are in great demand in Thailand and the Philippines, but military-grade products are affected by the Wassenaar Arrangement and require additional licenses.
Satellite components: Malaysia’s space program purchases Chinese Beidou components and needs to circumvent technology transfer restrictions through terminal assembly.
- Key market differentiation characteristics
Country Sensitive areas Policy barriers Alternative sources
Vietnam Power equipment/optical fiber Document No. 06/2022/TT-BTTTT restricts Chinese equipment Samsung, South Korea
Indonesia Smelting equipment/petrochemical equipment RCEP negative list in 2023 restricts foreign investment share Mitsubishi, Japan
Singapore Semiconductor materials Follow the US export control list Taiwan/Germany - Core challenges of exports
Compliance risks
Under the control of the Myanmar military government, 32 batches of Chinese drone accessories were seized in 2023 due to unclear end-user verification.
Malaysia’s new SIRIM certification regulations require the filing of source code for communication equipment, resulting in a 6-month delay in the entry of some Huawei products into the market.
Pressure of localized production
Thailand’s 4.0 strategy requires electric vehicle battery factories to achieve local production of modules by 2025, otherwise tariffs will be increased by 15%.
Geopolitical transmission
After the Philippines signed the “Bilateral Defense Guidelines” with the United States in 2024, the Subic Port radar station project in which Chinese companies participated was stopped.
IV. Breakthrough strategies and prospects
Compliance path innovation
Technology splitting: separate the delivery of sensitive algorithms and hardware (such as DJI loading agricultural aerial survey software through a local Thai company).
Joint certification: Cooperate with Singapore PSB to establish a regional testing center to shorten the certification cycle (Longi photovoltaic module approval time is shortened to 45 days).
Industry chain embedding
Vietnam case: Trina Solar set up a factory in Bac Giang Province, Vietnam, and exported modules to the United States to avoid AD/CVD tariffs. The production capacity will be increased to 6GW in 2023.
Emerging growth points
Carbon neutral equipment: Indonesia’s PLN Power Company’s plan to eliminate coal-fired power plants in 2025 will bring a window for China’s carbon capture equipment exports.
Cross-border data services: Under Singapore’s AI governance framework, Chinese companies can export compliant algorithm services through the “data sandbox” model.
Forecast for 2024-2026:
The average annual growth rate of sensitive goods exports will remain at 8-12%, lower than the overall export growth rate to Southeast Asia (15-18%), but new energy and digital economy-related categories may achieve 20%+ growth.
The risk point is that the United States may extend the CHIPS Act restrictions to Chinese companies’ subsidiaries in Southeast Asia, and it is necessary to pay close attention to the developments of the ASEAN-US Special Summit in 2024.
It is recommended that export companies establish a “country compliance officer” system and dynamically adjust their layout in combination with the RCEP rules of origin and the industrial policies of ASEAN countries.