由 caicai8478 As one of the core driving factors for the growth of China’s cross-border e-commerce, ultra-low-cost international logistics has significantly promoted the expansion of the industry by reducing transaction costs, expanding market coverage and improving competitiveness. The following analyzes its specific mechanism and impact from an economic perspective:
- Reduce transaction costs and activate the long-tail market
Diminishing marginal cost effect
Economy of scale is the basis of ultra-low-cost logistics. Chinese cross-border e-commerce companies have reduced the cost of single-piece transportation to an extremely low level (for example, US$0.5-3/kg) by centrally purchasing logistics services (such as cooperating with postal parcels and dedicated logistics). This makes it possible to sell low-priced goods (such as Yiwu small commodities and 3C accessories) internationally, activating the long-tail market that has been neglected in traditional trade due to high logistics costs.
Break the “price threshold”
The proportion of logistics costs to the price of goods has dropped from more than 30% in the past to less than 5% (such as Shein’s cross-border logistics costs account for about 4%), and the total price paid by consumers is close to the level of local e-commerce, which significantly increases the willingness to buy. For example, Chinese sellers can price their products on Amazon 20%-30% lower than those of US sellers and still maintain profits.
- Improve the efficiency of supply and demand matching
Shorten the supply chain links
Ultra-low-cost logistics promotes the popularization of the “direct mail model”, bypassing traditional importers, wholesalers and other intermediate links to achieve a direct link between “Chinese factories and overseas consumers”. For example, the “5 US dollars 10-day delivery” service launched by AliExpress and Cainiao has compressed the cross-border time to a level close to that of domestic e-commerce.
Dynamic inventory optimization
Low-cost logistics reduces the stocking pressure of overseas warehouses. Enterprises can adopt the “small order fast return” model: first test the market reaction through direct mail, and then stock hot-selling products locally. Head sellers such as Anker have increased their inventory turnover rate to twice the industry average.
- Create structural competitive advantages
Hedge against rising platform traffic costs
With the commission rate of platforms such as Amazon rising to 15%-20%, logistics cost savings have become a key profit buffer. Chinese sellers have maintained a gross profit margin of 15%-25% (European and American sellers are usually 10%-15%) through extremely low logistics costs.
Differentiated competitive barriers
The logistics network barriers established by China (such as the China-Europe Express and Southeast Asia special lines) have formed regional advantages. Taking Southeast Asia as an example, the logistics cost from China to Indonesia is 40% lower than that of Indonesian local e-commerce purchasing from the United States, helping platforms such as Shopee to quickly occupy the market.
- Data-driven positive cycle
Logistics data feeds back production
The massive orders brought by low-cost logistics generate consumer big data, guiding domestic manufacturers to produce accurately. For example, Shenzhen 3C companies predict Eastern European market demand through AliExpress sales data, shortening the new product development cycle from 3 months to 1 month.
Platform ecological synergy
Alibaba, Pinduoduo, etc. quickly acquire users through subsidized logistics (such as Temu’s “free logistics” strategy), and the single-piece logistics cost is 15%-20% lower than the industry, forming a positive cycle of “low price-high traffic-larger scale-lower logistics price”.
V. Potential risks and long-term challenges
Price competition is unsustainable
Some companies rely on logistics subsidies (such as Temu’s subsidy of about US$1.5 per order), which may cause trade frictions in the long run. The EU has planned to cancel the VAT exemption for small packages below 22 euros.
Service quality bottleneck
Ultra-low prices are often accompanied by fluctuations in timeliness (such as the delivery rate of small packages by ordinary mail is about 85%), and the high-end market still needs overseas warehouse support. In 2023, Chinese sellers accounted for 35% of Amazon buyers’ complaints about logistics timeliness.
Geopolitical risks
The US “Cross-border E-commerce Act of 2023” requires platforms to provide more transparency for low-priced packages, which may increase compliance costs.
VI. Future trends
Technology cost reduction
Technology applications such as drones and AI path planning can reduce logistics costs by another 30%. For example, Jitu’s automated sorting center in Indonesia has reduced the cost of handling a single piece by 40%.
Regional layout
The rise of “nearshore logistics”: Chinese companies have built transit warehouses in Mexico, Turkey and other countries, balancing costs and timeliness through “half-way low-cost logistics + local delivery”.
Internalization of ESG costs
Carbon tariffs may impose additional fees on air parcels, forcing investment in green logistics technology.
Conclusion
Ultra-low-cost international logistics is essentially an extension of China’s manufacturing scale advantage to the circulation link. By reconstructing the cost structure of global retail, cross-border e-commerce has been upgraded from a “trade supplement” to a “mainstream channel”. In the future, it is necessary to shift from pure price competition to the comprehensive optimization of “cost-efficiency-experience” to meet the challenges of global supply chain reconstruction.