由 caicai8478 The implementation of environmental policies such as international shipping carbon tax and EU carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) may indeed have a significant impact on low-cost logistics costs. The following is an analysis of the potential impact of these policies on the logistics industry and the factors that may cause cost increases:
- Impact of EU carbon tariff (CBAM) on logistics supply chain
Carbon cost transmission: CBAM requires importers to declare the carbon emissions of products and purchase corresponding carbon certificates. Although it is currently mainly aimed at high-carbon industries such as steel, aluminum, and cement, it may be extended to logistics and transportation in the future. For example, carbon emissions during transportation (such as ships, trucks, etc.) may be included in the accounting scope, increasing logistics costs14.
Carbon footprint of terminal logistics: CBAM not only focuses on the production link, but also involves carbon emissions throughout the supply chain. For example, if the “last mile” delivery in Central and Eastern Europe relies on high-carbon transportation methods (such as fuel trucks), it may push up the overall carbon bill, thereby affecting logistics pricing1.
Data tracking and compliance costs: Logistics companies need to invest in carbon emission monitoring systems and provide verifiable carbon data, otherwise they may face fines (such as 10-50 euros per ton of undeclared emissions). These additional compliance costs may be passed on to customers, pushing up logistics costs4.
- Direct impact of international shipping carbon taxes (such as EU ETS and IMO new regulations)
Rising shipping fuel costs: The EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) has covered the shipping industry and requires ships to pay quota fees for carbon emissions. For example, China-Poland ships will increase carbon tax costs by US$2 million in 2024 due to EU ETS, and are expected to increase by another 50% in 20257.
Promotion of alternative fuels: Although low-carbon options such as green methanol and ammonia fuel can reduce carbon emissions, they are currently expensive (for example, biofuels are US$150/ton more expensive than traditional fuel oil). In the short term, shipping companies may pass this part of the cost on to shippers, resulting in an increase in shipping costs7.
Optimization of routes and adjustment of ports of call: In order to avoid high carbon taxes, some shipping companies have reduced their calls at EU ports and switched to non-EU hubs. However, this may increase the number of transshipments and transportation time, indirectly pushing up the overall logistics costs7.
- Challenges faced by low-cost logistics
The traditional high-carbon transportation model is impacted: low-cost logistics usually relies on high-emission transportation tools such as fuel trucks and old ships. As carbon taxes and environmental regulations become stricter, the operating costs of these models will rise, forcing companies to turn to more expensive low-carbon alternatives17.
Initial investment in multimodal transport and green logistics: Although low-carbon methods such as railways and water transport can reduce costs in the long term, they require a large amount of investment in the early stage (such as dedicated railway lines and green port facilities). Small and medium-sized enterprises may find it difficult to afford, resulting in increased market concentration and weakening the competition of low-cost logistics10.
Green requirements for packaging and warehousing: CBAM may include packaging materials in carbon accounting, and the hidden carbon costs of non-recyclable materials such as disposable plastics will become apparent. Although the use of degradable packaging (such as corn starch boxes) reduces the carbon footprint by 67%, the unit price is higher3.
- Future trends and response strategies
Globalization of carbon pricing: In addition to the EU, the United States, Canada and other countries may follow CBAM to form a global carbon barrier. Logistics companies need to plan carbon accounting and emission reduction technologies in advance to avoid passive response in the future8.
Technology cost reduction and scale effect: As the production capacity of green fuels (such as green ammonia and hydrogen energy) increases and infrastructure improves, their prices may fall. For example, Singapore Port reduced logistics costs by 20% through methanol refueling experiments, showing long-term potential5.
Policy hedging and carbon market linkage: If China’s carbon market is mutually recognized with the EU ETS, or if the Hainan Free Trade Port is used to establish an international carbon sink trading mechanism, it can partially offset the impact of CBAM and alleviate logistics cost pressure8.
Conclusion
In the short term, the EU CBAM and international shipping carbon tax will push up low-cost logistics costs, especially for companies that rely on high-carbon transportation modes. But in the long run, through green technology innovation, multimodal transport optimization and policy coordination, the industry may find a new cost balance point. Logistics companies need to plan ahead in terms of carbon management, data transparency and low-carbon technologies to cope with stricter environmental regulations in the future.