由 caicai8478 - Background analysis
Current situation of the global smartphone market
The traditional smartphone market is becoming saturated and the growth rate is slowing down. Manufacturers are in urgent need of technological innovation to stimulate consumption upgrades.
The demand for high-end models in the European and American markets is stable, and users are more willing to pay a premium for differentiated features (such as 5G and foldable screens).
International progress of Chinese mobile phone brands
Brands such as Huawei, Xiaomi, OPPO, and vivo have dominated the Asian and African markets, but still need to break through in the high-end markets in Europe and the United States.
China’s supply chain has global competitiveness in the fields of 5G communications and flexible screen technology (such as BOE).
- Export potential of 5G mobile phones
Technical advantages
China’s 5G patents account for more than 30% (dominated by Huawei and ZTE), and mobile phone manufacturers can quickly integrate advanced baseband chips and RF technologies.
Cost-effectiveness advantage: China’s 5G mobile phones cover a wide price range (such as Honor and Realme models are priced 20%-30% lower than their European and American counterparts).
Market demand in Europe and the United States
European 5G network coverage has reached more than 60% (GSMA data), US operators are accelerating 5G deployment, and the demand for replacement continues to be released.
Challenges: Some European and American countries restrict brands such as Huawei due to “security risks”, and need to rely on neutral brands such as Xiaomi and OPPO to break the deadlock.
III. Growth opportunities for foldable screen mobile phones
Differentiation competition grip
Global shipments of foldable screen mobile phones will increase by 50% year-on-year in 2023 (DSCC data), with Samsung and Huawei dominating, but the market is still in a blue ocean.
Technological breakthroughs of Chinese manufacturers: Xiaomi Mix Fold 3 hinge life reaches 500,000 times, and OPPO Find N3 weight is close to that of a straight-panel phone.
User acceptance in Europe and the United States
High-end users have a high acceptance of innovative forms (such as Samsung Z Fold series has a market share of more than 80% in Europe and the United States), but are less price sensitive.
Chinese brands need to solve the following:
Brand awareness: Enhance the high-end image through localized marketing (such as cooperation with football clubs and fashion IPs).
Channel construction: Strengthen cooperation with operators and chain retailers to reduce online dependence.
Fourth, key challenges
Geopolitical risks
U.S. technology sanctions against China may limit the supply of advanced chips, and localization needs to be accelerated (such as Huawei Kirin 9000S module).
EU carbon tariff policy may increase supply chain costs.
Localized competition
Apple is expected to launch a folding screen mobile phone in 2025, which may squeeze the space of Chinese brands.
Samsung forms barriers through vertical integration (screen, chip, manufacturing).
V. Strategic recommendations
Technical level
Jointly develop ultra-thin UTG glass and lightweight hinges with the supply chain to reduce the maintenance cost of folding screens (currently the cost of replacing the screen is as high as US$500).
Market level
Segmented scene marketing: Emphasize multitasking for business people and highlight fashion attributes for young users.
Eco-synergy: Promote the interconnection function of folding screens and IoT devices (such as tablets and watches) to build a moat.
Policy level
Use agreements such as RCEP to reduce export tariffs and set up local assembly plants in Europe to circumvent trade barriers.
VI. Conclusion
In the short term, 5G mobile phones will rely on their cost-effectiveness to maintain their export base, while foldable screen mobile phones are expected to become a new high-end market in 2025-2030. Chinese manufacturers need to find a balance between technology iteration, brand premium and geopolitical risks in order to achieve the transformation from “cost-effectiveness” to “technical benchmark” in the European and American markets.
Data supplement:
In 2023, China’s 5G mobile phone exports accounted for 35% of the global share (Counterpoint).
It is estimated that the global shipments of foldable screen mobile phones will reach 75 million units in 2025 (Canalys), and Chinese brands need to compete for more than 30% of the market share.