由 caicai8478 China’s adjustment of export control on graphite items is an important measure to cope with the reconstruction of the global supply chain and technological competition, which will have a far-reaching impact on the global new energy, high-tech industries and China’s own related industries. The following is a specific analysis and industry development trends:
- Direct impact
Global supply chain impact
Short-term pain: Graphite is a key raw material for lithium battery negative electrode materials (accounting for more than 90%), semiconductor heat dissipation, etc. China accounts for about 65% (natural graphite) and more than 90% (artificial graphite) of the global graphite supply. Controls may cause international manufacturers to face cost increases (expected to increase by 20%-30%) and supply chain restructuring pressure in the short term, especially battery manufacturers such as South Korea and Japan.
Accelerated technological substitution: Overseas companies may accelerate the development of alternative materials (such as silicon-based negative electrodes, lithium metal negative electrodes) or non-Chinese supply chains (such as natural graphite in Mozambique and Madagascar, or Western artificial graphite capacity expansion).
Pressure on China’s industrial chain upgrade
High value-added transformation: Controls are mainly aimed at low-end graphite (such as spheroidized graphite), and high-end products (such as high-purity, coating modified materials) can still be exported, forcing domestic companies to transform to refined processing and improve technical barriers.
Vertical integration trend: Leading companies such as CATL and BYD have laid out the entire graphite mine-processing-battery industry chain to avoid external risks.
- Industry development trend
Reshaping the global graphite industry pattern
Overseas capacity expansion: Companies such as Syrah Resources (Australia/Mozambique) and Northern Graphite (Canada) are accelerating production expansion, but it is difficult to fill the gap in China in the short term (artificial graphite capacity construction takes 2-3 years, and energy consumption costs are high).
Local “decoupling” risk: The United States and Europe may support the local graphite supply chain through policies such as the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), but complete replacement will take 5-10 years.
Iteration of technical routes
Battery field: R&D of silicon-based negative electrode (Tesla 4680 battery has been applied) and solid-state battery (no graphite negative electrode required) has accelerated, but commercialization still needs time (it is expected that the penetration rate will be less than 15% before 2030).
Non-battery applications: The demand for high-purity graphite in high-end fields such as nuclear reactors and aerospace is growing, and China may maintain its advantage through technological upgrades.
Changes in China’s domestic industry
Accelerated resource integration: Small and medium-sized graphite companies are facing elimination due to environmental protection and export restrictions, and industry concentration is increasing (the market share of the top 5 companies may increase from 40% to 60%+).
Rise of recycling economy: Recycling and extracting graphite from lithium batteries (current utilization rate <5%) will become a new growth point, and it is expected that the scale of China’s recycled graphite market will exceed 10 billion yuan in 2030.
III. Long-term strategic significance
Resource leverage effect: China strengthens its voice in the new energy industry chain through graphite control, similar to the rare earth control model, and provides a reference for subsequent key mineral policies (such as lithium and cobalt).
Green barriers are formed: Europe and the United States may exclude Chinese graphite (artificial graphite production has high carbon emissions) with “carbon footprint” requirements, forcing the development of domestic clean production technology (such as green electricity graphite).
Conclusion
This adjustment marks China’s shift from “resource export” to “technology + resource dual output” strategy, which may cause trade frictions in the short term, but will promote the global graphite industry to evolve towards high value-added and low carbon in the long term. Domestic companies need to seize the window period, break through high-end material technology (such as isotropic graphite), and at the same time deploy overseas resources (such as African mining rights) to hedge risks.