由 caicai8478 Exchange rate fluctuations are a common financial risk in international trade, directly eroding corporate profits and threatening supply chain stability. Unlike operational risks such as shipping delays, exchange rate risk is more insidious and financial in nature, requiring systematic management from both a financial and strategic perspective.
I. Key Risk Manifestations of Exchange Rate Fluctuations in International Logistics
Every aspect of international logistics involves cross-border payments and receipts, so the impact of exchange rate fluctuations is pervasive.
- Transaction Risk—The Most Direct Risk
Cost Uncertainty: Contracts signed between companies and service providers such as freight forwarders, shipping companies, and airlines often involve a time lag between quotation and actual payment. If the payment currency appreciates against the local currency, this will directly lead to increased logistics costs and compressed profit margins.
Example: A Chinese company signs a sea freight contract with a shipping company for US$5,000 (the exchange rate at the time was 1:7.0, equivalent to RMB 35,000). One month later, when payment is due, the US dollar appreciates to 1:7.2, forcing the company to pay 36,000 RMB, resulting in an additional loss of 1,000 RMB.
Revenue Uncertainty: If a logistics service provider (such as a Chinese freight forwarder) quotes and receives payment in foreign currency, and that currency depreciates before payment is received, its local currency revenue will decrease.
- Quotation Competitiveness Risk
Quotation Invalidation: The logistics prices a company quotes to customers (especially long-term quotes) are based on the prevailing exchange rate. If the receiving currency (such as the US dollar or euro) depreciates significantly while the cost currency (such as the RMB) strengthens, the original quote may become unprofitable or even unprofitable.
Decreased Competitiveness: If competitors employ better exchange rate hedging strategies, they may offer more stable and attractive prices.
- Cash Flow and Financial Planning Risk
Budgeting Inaccuracies: Sharp exchange rate fluctuations can make it difficult for companies to accurately forecast future logistics costs and cash flow, creating significant challenges for financial budgeting and funding arrangements.
Profit Fluctuations: For traditional trade and logistics industries with low profit margins, a single significant exchange rate fluctuation can completely wipe out the profits of several transactions, leading to significant fluctuations in performance.
- Economic Risk—Strategic Risk
Long-term, wide-ranging exchange rate fluctuations can alter a country or region’s overall manufacturing and logistics cost structure, thereby impacting global supply chain layout decisions. For example, a long-term appreciation of the local currency may force companies to relocate production bases to lower-cost countries.
II. Core Strategies for Mitigating Exchange Rate Fluctuation Risk
Companies should establish a multi-layered risk management system based on their business scale, risk tolerance, and financial capabilities.
A. Internal Management Strategies (Not Involving Financial Instruments)
Optimizing Contract Terms
Currency Selection:
Strive to use local currency for settlement: The most direct approach. When negotiating with freight forwarders or customers, strive to use the local currency as the settlement currency, fully transferring exchange rate risk to the counterparty.
Use a “Currency Basket”: For large projects, it is possible to agree to use a combination of currencies for settlement to diversify the risk associated with a single currency.
Price Adjustment Clauses: Include exchange rate fluctuation linkage clauses in long-term contracts. For example, stipulate, “If the exchange rate on the settlement date fluctuates by more than ±3% relative to the exchange rate on the contract signing date, the parties will adjust the contract price proportionally.”
Shortening the Settlement Cycle: Accelerate the frequency of collection and payment, such as reducing the payment period from 90 days to 30 days, to reduce risk exposure.
Operational and Financial Strategies
Natural Hedges: Strive to match the currency and maturity of a company’s foreign currency revenue and expenditures. For example, using US dollar revenue from exports to directly pay US dollar import freight costs creates a natural hedge.
Advance/Deferred Foreign Exchange Settlement and Sales:
When the domestic currency is expected to appreciate or the foreign currency is expected to depreciate: Prepay foreign currency debts or require customers to pay in advance.
When the domestic currency is expected to depreciate or the foreign currency is expected to appreciate: Delay payment of foreign currency debts or allow customers to defer payment.
Establishing Exchange Rate Risk Reserves: Establish a dedicated reserve in the financial budget to absorb additional costs or losses incurred due to exchange rate fluctuations and smooth profit fluctuations.
B. Financial Instrument Hedging Strategies (Core Risk Hedging Tool)
When internal management strategies cannot fully cover risks, financial market instruments should be actively utilized.
Forward Foreign Exchange Trading
Operation: Entering into a forward foreign exchange contract with a bank locks in a foreign currency exchange rate for a specific future date.
Advantages: This is the most commonly used and effective hedging tool, completely eliminating future exchange rate uncertainty and facilitating enterprise cost accounting and quotation.
Example: A company anticipates paying $100,000 in freight costs three months from now. It can enter into a three-month forward foreign exchange contract with a bank, locking in an exchange rate of 7.05. Regardless of whether the market exchange rate is 7.20 or 6.90 three months from now, the company will exchange 705,000 RMB for $100,000 at 7.05.
Foreign Exchange Options
Operation: Paying an option premium grants the “right” (but not the obligation) to buy or sell foreign exchange at a predetermined exchange rate on a specific future date.
Advantages: This allows for both risk mitigation (exercise if the exchange rate moves unfavorably) and profit generation (forgetting the option and trading at the market price if the exchange rate moves favorably). Suitable for use when exchange rate trends are uncertain.
Disadvantages: Requires an option premium, resulting in higher costs than forward transactions.
Currency Swap
Operation: Two parties exchange principal and interest in different currencies within an agreed-upon period, then reconcile upon maturity.
Application Scenarios: More suitable for managing exchange rate risk in long-term, large-scale financing or investment projects, but relatively uncommon in international logistics.
C. Strategic and Systematic Strategies
Supply Chain Diversification:
By establishing multiple suppliers or logistics channels in different currency zones, you can leverage fluctuations in different currencies to naturally hedge overall risk.
Strengthening Exchange Rate Monitoring and Forecasting:
Designate a dedicated person or department to monitor global macroeconomic trends, central bank policies, and geopolitical events, analyze and assess the trends of major currencies, and provide a basis for decision-making.
Incorporate Exchange Rate Risk into the Quotation System:
When quoting to clients, consider not only costs and profits but also the expected exchange rate fluctuation range as a risk premium.
III. Recommended Implementation Steps
Risk Identification and Assessment: Review all contracts involving foreign currency receipts and payments, and quantify the amount, currency, and term of risk exposure.
Develop a Risk Management Policy: Clarify the company’s risk tolerance, available hedging tools, decision-making process, and authority.
Implementation and Operation: Led by the Finance Department and working with the business departments, select and implement appropriate hedging strategies based on the policy.
Monitoring and Review: Regularly evaluate the effectiveness of hedging strategies and adjust them based on market changes and business development.
Conclusion
In international logistics, exchange rate fluctuations are an uncontrollable but manageable risk. Companies must not rely on luck and instead cultivate a strong risk-neutral mindset. By building a proactive and professional exchange rate risk management system through a combination of “internal contract management + external financial instruments,” they can transform unpredictable market fluctuations into manageable financial costs, thereby ensuring stable profits and international competitiveness.