由 caicai8478 I. Analysis of the root causes of slow sales and out-of-stock
Main reasons for slow sales
Inaccurate market demand forecast
Misjudgment of product life cycle
Lack of consideration of seasonal factors
Insufficient marketing promotion
Sudden entry of competing products into the market
Main reasons for out-of-stock
Sudden supply chain response time
Sales growth exceeds expectations
Insufficient supplier capacity
Logistics and transportation delays
Inaccurate inventory data
II. Accurate demand forecasting methods
Data analysis basis
Historical sales data analysis (at least 2 years of data)
Market trend research
Competitor monitoring
Seasonal index calculation
Forecast model Application
Moving average method (applicable to stable demand)
Exponential smoothing method (considering recent trends)
ARIMA model (complex time series analysis)
Machine learning prediction (big data scenario)
Collaborative prediction mechanism
Sales team provides market insights
Purchasing team feedbacks supply information
Direct customer demand survey
Cross-department forecast consensus meeting
III. Inventory optimization strategy
ABC classification management
Class A (high value): close monitoring, high-frequency replenishment
Class B (medium value): regular inspection, moderate inventory
Class C (low value): simplified management, bulk purchase
Safety stock calculation
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Safety stock = Z × σ × √(L)
(Z: service level factor, σ: demand standard deviation, L: lead time)
Dynamic replenishment strategy
Regular inspection + quantitative ordering (fixed cycle, variable quantity)
Quantitative inspection + regular ordering (fixed quantity, variable cycle)
Real-time replenishment (JIT mode, high supply chain requirements)
IV. Supply chain collaborative management
Supplier relationship optimization
Establish a multi-supplier system
Sign a VMI (vendor managed inventory) agreement
Share sales forecast data
Negotiate flexible procurement terms
Logistics network design
Multi-warehouse layout reduces transportation time
Nearshore warehousing reduces costs
3PL partner evaluation
Transportation mode combination optimization
Information system integration
ERP system connects all links
WMS warehouse management system real-time Monitoring
TMS transportation management system tracking
BI tool visual analysis
V. Risk prevention measures
Slow-selling prevention plan
Pre-sale model to test market response
Small batch trial sales to evaluate demand
Set inventory turnover rate warning line
Develop promotion clearance plan
Out-of-stock emergency plan
Safety inventory buffer design
Alternative product plan
Emergency air transport channel
Customer tiered supply strategy
Monitoring and early warning mechanism
Set inventory water level alarm
Daily/weekly inventory health check
Key indicator dashboard (turnover rate, out-of-stock rate, etc.)
Regular inventory audit
VI. Technical tool application
Inventory optimization software
ToolsGroup
EazyStock
Lokad
Predictive analysis platform
Oracle Demand Planning
SAP IBP
Anaplan
AI solution
Demand perception algorithm
Automatic replenishment engine
Anomaly detection system
VII. Continuous improvement mechanism
Performance evaluation system
Inventory turnover rate
Order fulfillment rate
Percentage of unsalable inventory
Inventory holding cost
PDCA cycle
Plan: set goals and methods
Do: implement the plan
Check: evaluate results
Act: standardize and improve
Knowledge management
Establish a case library (success and failure)
Regular experience sharing sessions
Industry benchmark learning
Professional training program
Through the above systematic management methods, enterprises can significantly reduce the risk of unsalable and out-of-stock in overseas warehouses, and achieve an optimal balance between inventory costs and service levels.