Shipping Companies Raise Prices Collectively! China-Mexico Container Freight Rates Surpass the $8,000 Mark

Since 2025, the maritime shipping market from China to Mexico has witnessed a stunning “price surge,” with container freight rates rising steadily and now surpassing the $8,000 mark. This sharp price increase is not an isolated event but the result of a combination of factors, exerting a profound impact on the supply chains of related industries and the global trade landscape. What exactly has prompted shipping companies to raise prices collectively? What market changes and industry trends does this reflect? This article will delve into the multiple factors behind this phenomenon and explore potential response strategies for all stakeholders.

I. Current Situation of Soaring Freight Rates: The Stunning Increase Behind the Data

From a data perspective, at the beginning of 2025, container shipping prices from China to major Mexican ports (such as Manzanillo Port and Veracruz Port) began a steady upward trend. By the second quarter, the rate of increase accelerated significantly. In just three months, the base freight rate for a 40-foot container soared from approximately \(3,000 at the start of the year to over \)5,000, representing a staggering increase of around 67%. With the arrival of the traditional peak season, major shipping companies successively announced the imposition of “Peak Season Surcharges (PSS),” pushing the total transportation cost for a single 40-foot container above \(7,000—a new high in recent years. Recently, this figure has even exceeded the \)8,000 mark, with the rate of increase leaving many astounded.

During specific periods, such as the run-up to major Mexican holidays or cross-border e-commerce promotion seasons, freight rates have experienced explosive growth. For some popular routes, “one container hard to find” has become the norm; even if enterprises are willing to pay high surcharges, there is no guarantee of securing a booking. This situation not only severely disrupts the timely transportation of goods but also significantly increases enterprises’ logistics costs, further compressing their profit margins.

II. Demand Side: Booming Mexican Market Drives Surge in Export Orders

(1) Mexico Becomes a “Hotspot” for Industrial Relocation, Sparking Explosive Growth in Intermediate Goods Imports

Against the backdrop of accelerated global supply chain restructuring, Mexico, leveraging its significant advantages of proximity to the U.S. market and relatively low labor costs, has emerged as a key node in the global industrial layout, attracting a wave of industrial relocation. Particularly in industries such as automobiles and electronics, numerous international giants have invested in building factories in Mexico. For example, in the automotive sector, industry leaders like Tesla and Ford have established large-scale production bases in Mexico. The construction of these factories has generated massive demand for auto parts. In the electronics industry, companies such as Apple and Samsung have also shifted part of their production capacity to Mexico, driving a surge in demand for imported intermediate goods like mobile phone assembly materials.

The auto parts (e.g., batteries, chips) and mobile phone assembly materials (e.g., screens, casings) required by these enterprises are mostly sourced from China, with maritime shipping serving as the primary transportation method. Taking 2024 as an example, Mexico’s automobile production increased by 18% year-on-year, and 60% of the automotive batteries needed by local factories were supplied by Chinese companies such as CATL and BYD. To meet production demands, Mexican automotive enterprises significantly increased their import orders from China. In the fourth quarter of 2024 alone, the volume of maritime shipments of auto parts from China to Mexico rose by 45% year-on-year. A large number of containers flooded into Manzanillo Port—Mexico’s main port for auto parts imports—pushing the port’s shipping space utilization rate to over 95%. This shortage of shipping space directly drove the surge in freight rates.

(2) Rise of Cross-Border E-Commerce: “No Off-Season” for Consumer Goods Transportation Demand

In recent years, cross-border e-commerce in Mexico has developed rapidly, completely breaking the traditional maritime market pattern of “strong demand in peak seasons and weak demand in off-seasons.” According to data from the Mexican Electronic Commerce Association, Mexico’s cross-border e-commerce transaction volume exceeded $40 billion in 2024, with 70% of consumer goods sourced from China, covering categories such as clothing, home appliances, and household items.

To meet stable annual consumer demand, e-commerce platforms like Amazon Mexico and Mercado Libre generally adopt an “advance stocking” strategy. Even during the traditional off-season in the first half of the year, these platforms procure large quantities of goods from China via maritime shipping and transport them to Mexican overseas warehouses. For instance, from January to February 2025—a traditional off-season—the volume of cross-border e-commerce cargo transported on China-Mexico routes increased by 30% year-on-year, with shipments of home appliances growing by an impressive 52%. This strong “no-off-season” demand further exacerbated the shortage of maritime shipping space, driving freight rates to continue their upward trajectory.

(3) USMCA Stimulates Demand for “Transshipment Trade”

The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which took effect in 2020, stipulates that automobiles, electronics, and other products manufactured in North America that meet specific rules of origin are eligible for duty-free treatment. This policy directly spurred the rise of the “China-Mexico-U.S.” transshipment trade model. Chinese enterprises first ship goods to Mexico via maritime transport, conduct simple processing (such as labeling or assembly) locally, and then re-export the goods to the United States to avail of tariff preferences.

In the mobile phone industry, for example, the number of mobile phones exported from China to Mexico via transshipment trade reached 12 million units in 2024, a substantial year-on-year increase of 60%. Most of these mobile phones arrived at Mexican bonded zones via maritime shipping and were subsequently distributed to the U.S. market. In 2024 alone, transshipment trade drove a 35% increase in the volume of maritime shipments on China-Mexico routes, emerging as a key driver of transportation demand growth on these routes. The massive demand for shipping space from transshipment trade cargo further squeezed already limited maritime resources, pushing freight rates to new highs repeatedly.

III. Capacity Side: Lagging Supply Growth Leads to “Insufficient Resources for All”

(1) “Conservative” Capacity Deployment by Shipping Companies, New Vessels Fail to Fill the Gap in Time

Major global shipping companies (such as Maersk, COSCO Shipping, and Hapag-Lloyd) typically formulate capacity allocation plans based on long-term market forecasts. However, the explosive growth in demand on China-Mexico routes has far exceeded their expectations, resulting in a severe lag in capacity deployment. In 2024, the demand for container transportation on China-Mexico routes increased by 40% year-on-year, while the new capacity added by shipping companies was only 15%, creating a significant 25% capacity gap between supply and demand.

There are two main reasons for the “conservative” capacity deployment by shipping companies. Firstly, the shipbuilding cycle is relatively long, usually taking 2-3 years, which makes it difficult for shipping companies to rapidly increase capacity in the short term. Secondly, shipping companies have concerns about the long-term stability of the Mexican market, fearing that the current demand growth is merely a temporary “boom.” As a result, they are reluctant to invest heavily in building new vessels. For example, in 2024, Maersk only added 2 new 10,000 TEU (Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit) vessels to its China-Mexico routes. Compared to the 40% demand growth rate on these routes, this additional capacity is a drop in the bucket, further exacerbating the shortage of shipping space.

(2) Outdated Port Infrastructure Leaves Goods “Stranded at Terminals”

The outdated infrastructure and low loading/unloading efficiency of major Mexican ports have become a “bottleneck” restricting capacity turnover. Take Manzanillo Port—Mexico’s busiest port—as an example. The port’s container terminal has only 5 berths, and most of its loading/unloading equipment is over 20 years old, suffering from severe obsolescence. Its hourly loading/unloading efficiency is only 25 TEUs, a significant gap compared to Shanghai Port in China, which achieves an hourly efficiency of 60 TEUs.

In 2024, Manzanillo Port experienced frequent congestion, primarily due to equipment failures and labor shortages. The average stay time of ships at the port increased from the usual 7 days to 12 days, with some ships even waiting up to 2 weeks to berth and unload. Port congestion has significantly reduced ship turnover efficiency. Ships that were previously able to complete 3 round trips between China and Mexico per month can now only finish 2 trips due to extended port stays, resulting in a 33% reduction in actual effective capacity. At the same time, port congestion has led to a backlog of a large number of containers, which cannot be transshipped in a timely manner. This further occupies limited shipping space resources, making the “one container hard to find” situation even worse.

(3) Shipping Space Allocation Favors “Large Shippers,” Leaving Small and Medium-Sized Shippers “Unable to Secure Containers”

Amid tight shipping space resources, shipping companies usually prioritize allocating space to long-term cooperative large shippers (such as Amazon, Walmart, and large automotive enterprises), leaving small and medium-sized shippers facing the dilemma of “being unable to secure bookings.” Long-term shipping space reservation agreements signed between large shippers and shipping companies typically lock in 50%-60% of the shipping space on a route. For example, in 2024, Amazon signed an agreement with COSCO Shipping to secure 30% of the shipping space on China-Mexico routes for transporting consumer goods on its platform; Tesla locked in 15% of the space for transporting auto parts.

This leaves small and medium-sized shippers competing for only 40%-50% of the remaining shipping space. During peak demand seasons, small and medium-sized shippers may even need to pay a 30%-50% surcharge to potentially secure a booking. Many small and medium-sized shippers, unable to secure timely bookings, are forced to leave their goods in warehouses, resulting in delayed deliveries. This not only damages the enterprises’ reputation but also increases additional warehousing costs.

IV. Cost Side: Multiple Factors Drive Up Operating Costs, Freight Rates “Rise in Tandem”

(1) Volatile Fuel Prices Spark Soaring Ship Operating Costs

Fuel costs occupy a core position in shipping companies’ operating costs, typically accounting for 30%-40% of total costs. Since 2024, affected by global geopolitical conflicts and imbalances in crude oil supply and demand, the price of marine fuel (IFO 380) has surged from \(600 per ton to \)900 per ton, representing a substantial 50% increase.

The rise in fuel prices has directly led to a significant increase in ship operating costs. Taking a 10,000 TEU container ship as an example, a one-way voyage from Shanghai, China to Manzanillo Port, Mexico takes approximately 30 days and consumes 1,500 tons of fuel. The fuel cost has increased from the original \(900,000 to \)1.35 million, a one-way increase of $450,000. To offset this cost increase, shipping companies have had to raise freight rates. The rise in fuel prices alone has driven up the freight rate for 40-foot containers on China-Mexico routes by 20%.

(2) Rising Labor Costs and Shortages of Port and Ship Personnel

In both China and Mexico, labor costs in maritime-related industries have been on a steady rise in recent years, while the industry is also facing a labor shortage—further driving up operating costs.

In China, the salaries of port workers and ship crew have been increasing year by year. In 2024, the average monthly salary of port workers increased by 15% year-on-year, and the monthly salary of crew members rose by an even higher 20%. Additionally, due to factors such as high work intensity and long periods away from home, the industry is facing a “recruitment difficulty” issue. Some ships have been forced to delay their departures due to insufficient crew staffing, which has impacted the supply of shipping space.

In Mexico, port worker strikes occur frequently. In 2024, port workers at Manzanillo Port and Veracruz Port went on strike due to salary disputes, with each strike lasting 7-10 days. During the strikes, port loading and unloading operations were forced to stop, and ships were unable to depart on time. To mitigate the risk of strikes, shipping companies have had to increase security costs and hire temporary replacement workers—undoubtedly further increasing operating costs. These increased costs are ultimately passed on to shippers through higher freight rates.

(3) “Diverse” Port Fees Drive Up Comprehensive Costs

In recent years, various fees at Mexican ports (such as Terminal Handling Charges (THC), Demurrage Fees, and Detention Fees) have been on the rise, and numerous new surcharges have been introduced—significantly increasing the comprehensive costs for shippers.

Taking Manzanillo Port as an example, in 2024, the Terminal Handling Charge (THC) for a 40-foot container at the port increased from \(800 to \)1,000, a 25% increase; Demurrage Fees rose from \(50 per container per day to \)70, and Detention Fees increased from \(40 per day to \)60. Furthermore, shipping companies have introduced additional surcharges such as the Peak Season Surcharge (PSS) and Port Congestion Surcharge (PCS). The total surcharges for a single 40-foot container range from \(500 to \)800, accounting for 20%-30% of the total freight rate.

These fee increases have significantly raised the comprehensive logistics costs for shippers, and shipping companies have further amplified the magnitude of freight rate increases by raising base rates—resulting in a continuous upward trend in freight rates on China-Mexico routes.

V. Policy and External Environment: Trade Policy Adjustments and Geopolitical Risks Intensify Market Volatility

(1) Tightening Mexican Customs Policies Cause Delays in Cargo Clearance

To crack down on smuggling and standardize import order, Mexico has been continuously strengthening customs supervision in recent years and has successively introduced a series of strict customs clearance policies, such as the “Electronic Product Import Traceability System” and “Pre-Declaration System.” While these policies contribute to market standardization, they have also prolonged cargo clearance times and increased the stay time of containers at ports—indirectly affecting shipping space turnover.

Take the “Pre-Declaration System” implemented in 2024 as an example. This policy requires that detailed declaration documents be submitted to Mexican Customs 72 hours before goods arrive at the port, and these documents must pass an AI system review by Customs. If the review fails, customs clearance cannot be completed. This policy has resulted in approximately 30% of goods requiring supplementary documents due to declaration issues, extending the customs clearance time from the original 3 days to 7 days. Some goods even require more than 10 days to complete customs clearance. The prolonged stay of containers at ports prevents ships from loading and unloading goods in a timely manner, reducing shipping space turnover efficiency and further exacerbating the “one container hard to find” situation—driving up freight rates.

(2) Changes in U.S.-Mexico Border Policies Increase Uncertainty in Transshipment Trade

Changes in U.S.-Mexico border policies have impacted the transshipment trade from China to Mexico, which in turn has indirectly disrupted the stability of maritime transportation demand. In 2024, U.S. Customs strengthened the verification of the origin of goods imported from Mexico, requiring more detailed processing certification documents. Some goods that failed to meet the requirements were denied entry, leading to a backlog of goods in Mexican bonded zones.

To comply with U.S. Customs verification, Chinese enterprises have had to adjust their transshipment trade processes, which has increased the stay time of goods in Mexico. Some goods even need to be shipped back to China, causing short-term fluctuations in maritime transportation demand. At the same time, policy uncertainty has made some enterprises adopt a wait-and-see attitude towards transshipment trade, reluctant to place large orders—further exacerbating the imbalance between supply and demand in the maritime shipping market. Shipping companies, fearing a decline in demand, are reluctant to increase capacity easily, while actual demand remains strong. This ultimately results in a prolonged shortage of shipping space and persistently high freight rates.

(3) Geopolitical Risks: Route Adjustments and Rising Insurance Costs

Global geopolitical conflicts (such as tensions in the Middle East) have also had an indirect impact on the China-Mexico maritime shipping market. To avoid risks, some shipping companies have adjusted their ship routes to bypass high-risk sea areas. This has led to longer voyage times, increased fuel consumption, and a further reduction in effective capacity.

For example, in the second half of 2024, due to heightened tensions in the Red Sea region of the Middle East, some shipping companies (such as Hapag-Lloyd) suspended routes from the Suez Canal to the Americas and instead chose to detour around the Cape of Good Hope in Africa. This extended the voyage from China to Mexico from 30 days to 45 days, reducing ship turnover efficiency by 33% and significantly decreasing effective capacity. At the same time, geopolitical risks have led to an increase in ship insurance costs. In 2024, ship insurance premiums rose by [X]%, and shipping companies passed this increased cost on to shippers through higher freight rates, further driving up freight rates on China-Mexico routes.

The 突破 of China-Mexico container freight rates above the $8,000 mark is the result of the combined effect of multiple factors,