由 lltx1822 The Global Supply Chain “Bottleneck”: A Deep Dive into Hong Kong’s Year-End Port Congestion
As 2025 draws to a close, the global supply chain once again faces strain due to severe congestion at Hong Kong’s ports. At this critical nexus linking Asia-Pacific manufacturing hubs with global consumer markets, vessel waiting times for berthing have soared to 3-5 days. Congestion surcharges for intra-Asia routes have been reinstated, with dangerous goods freight rates skyrocketing to USD 25,000 per container. Shipping giants like Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd have been forced to issue port omission notices. This congestion is not an isolated port operational incident but a concentrated eruption of global supply chain fragility. It acts as a “bottleneck” constricting the throat of international trade, placing thousands of foreign trade enterprises in the Pearl River Delta at risk of order delays and capital chain ruptures, and even triggering supply shortages in global industries like electronics and textiles. As the world’s fourth-largest container hub port, Hong Kong’s year-end congestion stems from a deep interweaving of multiple contradictions: infrastructure limitations, regional competition, supply chain transformation, and adjustments in the global trade landscape. It further reflects the transformation dilemmas faced by traditional shipping hubs amidst the shifting tides of globalization.
I. The Chain Reaction of Congestion: The Supply Chain Domino Effect from Port to Globe
The congestion at Hong Kong’s ports has long transcended the operational scope of a single port, evolving into an “obstruction point” for the global supply chain. Its impact transmits layer by layer along the trade chain, from shippers and forwarders to end markets, presenting a systemic and holistic shock.
For manufacturing enterprises in the Pearl River Delta, port congestion directly triggers a triple crisis: “difficult shipment, high cost, and broken capital chain.” The experience of Liang Shiyun, supply chain manager at a Hong Kong-based group, is representative. A batch of electronic base materials like copper-clad laminate and copper foil, worth tens of millions of US dollars imported by her company, was stranded at the terminal due to port clearance delays, incurring thousands of dollars in daily storage and unloading fees, while customer delivery deadlines loomed. More severe is the pressure on capital chains. Companies using FOB trade terms face the risk of customers abandoning cargo due to exorbitant freight, with millions in goods stockpiled in warehouses leading to cash flow disruption. Those using CIF terms are caught in a dilemma between “unable to book vessel space” or “soaring freight rates,” with some sea freight prices surging by over a thousand dollars in the short term, directly causing losses for shippers. Data shows that by the end of 2025, the average container dwell time at Hong Kong ports extended to 4.2 days, an increase of 1.8 days from normal periods. In the Pearl River Delta alone, over 30% of foreign trade enterprises were forced to delay deliveries due to port congestion, with order default rates rising 22% month-on-month.
The chain reaction within the shipping industry further amplifies supply chain risks. To avoid congestion, seven of the world’s top ten shipping lines adjusted their Asia route networks. Some mainline vessels to Europe and America were forced to omit Hong Kong, choosing instead to call at Shenzhen’s Yantian or Guangzhou’s Nansha ports, leading to an 18% reduction in available slots on Hong Kong’s Europe and America routes. Concurrently, congestion-induced capacity shortages pushed up global shipping costs. Freight rates from Asia to Europe rose 35% compared to the same period in 2024, and Asia to US West Coast rates increased by 28%. The crew shortage issue exacerbated by the Russia-Ukraine conflict added fuel to the fire—Ukrainian and Russian seafarers account for 17% of the global total, often holding senior positions like captains and chief engineers, with approximately 60,000 crew members stranded at sea or in ports, further intensifying capacity tightness. This vicious cycle of “congestion – port omission – capacity shortage – rate increase” has significantly heightened uncertainty in the global supply chain.
The chain reaction in end markets is equally striking. Congestion at Hong Kong ports caused delays in the supply of core components for the global electronics manufacturing industry, disrupting production lines for companies like Apple and Samsung, and extending delivery cycles for some electronic products during the Christmas season by 1-2 weeks. The textile and apparel industry was hit harder. Christmas costumes and Lunar New Year gifts exported from the Pearl River Delta missed peak sales seasons due to transport delays, with over USD 500 million worth of orders in the US market alone facing return risks. More notably, as a crucial global entrepôt hub, Hong Kong’s congestion disrupted trade channels between the Asia-Pacific region and emerging markets in Africa, Asia, and Latin America. Electronics imports into multiple African countries and agricultural product exports from Latin America experienced varying degrees of supply disruption, as the supply chain’s “butterfly effect” continued to spread globally.
II. The Roots of Congestion: Formation of a Supply Chain “Bottleneck” Amid Intertwined Contradictions
The formation of Hong Kong’s year-end port congestion is the result of overlapping long-term structural contradictions and short-term disruptive factors. From a supply chain perspective, the emergence of this “bottleneck” stems both from the port’s own infrastructure shortcomings and is constrained by profound changes in the regional competitive landscape, logistics chain connectivity, and the global trade environment.
(A) Saturated Infrastructure Capacity, Physical Bottlenecks Hard to Break
As the core hub of Hong Kong’s port, the infrastructure capacity of the Kwai Tsing Container Terminals is nearing its limits. With 9 terminals and 24 berths, its designed annual handling capacity exceeds 20 million TEUs. However, Hong Kong’s port container throughput reached 42 million TEUs in 2023, and daily throughput during the peak season at the end of 2025 frequently exceeded 150,000 TEUs, far surpassing the terminal’s optimal daily handling threshold. More critically, Hong Kong port’s infrastructure expansion space is severely limited. There is no additional land for development around the Kwai Tsing basin. Although the channel was dredged to 17 meters in 2016, it still struggles to meet the routine berthing needs of the new generation of ultra-large container vessels (over 20,000 TEU capacity). The pace of upgrading terminal handling equipment is also lagging. The coverage of automated quay cranes is less than 30%, significantly lower than Singapore’s 70% and Shanghai’s 55%. Container handling efficiency per move is 15%-20% lower than competitors, leading to inefficient vessel berthing operations.
Insufficient yard capacity and shortcomings in mid-stream operation area support further exacerbate congestion. The total yard area at Hong Kong ports is approximately 279 hectares, with utilization nearing saturation during peak seasons. Untimely container pickup increases storage pressure, forcing some cargo to occupy temporary storage areas, indirectly affecting vessel berthing operations. The mid-stream operation area, handling about 3.3 million TEUs annually, faced vessel waiting times of up to 36 hours in the first week of December 2025 due to limited pier length and area during the cargo flow peak. Delays in river vessel unloading disrupted barge transfer connectivity with the Kwai Tsing terminals, creating a full-chain congestion across “yard – terminal – mid-stream operation area.”
(B) Fierce Regional Port Competition, Insufficient Supply Chain Diversification and Coordination
The rapid rise of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) port cluster has gradually eroded Hong Kong’s traditional advantages, while a lack of regional coordination mechanisms further amplifies congestion effects during peak seasons. Shenzhen’s Yantian Port, with its 18-meter deep-water channel, 60% automated quay crane coverage, and logistics costs 20%-30% lower than Hong Kong, has become the preferred port for Europe and America routes in South China. Its 2024 container throughput reached 33 million TEUs, with Europe and America routes accounting for over 50%, diverting a significant volume of high-value-added cargo from Hong Kong. Guangzhou’s Nansha Port leverages its hinterland advantage, focusing on domestic trade and Southeast Asia routes. With throughput surpassing 25 million TEUs in 2024, it has captured nearly 15% of Hong Kong’s near-sea route market share.
Homogeneous regional competition forces Hong Kong’s port into a “low-value-added transformation dilemma.” As high-margin mainline Europe and America cargo is lost, Hong Kong has had to shift towards lower-margin entrepôt trade and near-sea routes. The share of entrepôt trade has increased to 60%, adding cargo transshipment links and prolonging logistics cycles. For example, cargo from Chongqing and Chengdu destined for Africa, Asia, and Latin America may need to travel by river vessel to Shenzhen, transfer by barge to Hong Kong, and finally load onto ocean-going vessels, involving over three transshipment points. Delays at any link can trigger port backlogs. More crucially, coordination mechanisms within the GBA port cluster are not yet perfected. Although Hong Kong’s Port Community System (PCS) construction has begun, seamless integration with mainland ports’ logistics information platforms has not been achieved. Issues like documentation errors and cargo misallocation due to information asymmetry accounted for 18% of the causes of Hong Kong’s port congestion at the end of 2025.
(C) Supply Chain Transformation and External Shocks, Concentrated Release of Congestion Risks
Deep adjustments in the global supply chain and the叠加 of external disruptive factors further intensified congestion pressure at Hong Kong’s ports. On the cargo source side, the traditional November-December freight peak, combined with surging demand from the 2025 global economic recovery, caused Hong Kong’s port cargo volume to increase 45% month-on-month. Weekly container arrivals exceeded 1 million TEUs, far surpassing the port’s designed peak handling capacity (800,000 TEUs/week). Simultaneously, container supply-demand imbalance led to a 20% shortage rate for export containers. Some shippers pre-positioned empty containers to secure space, further occupying limited yard resources.
Disconnected logistics chains created “blockages.” Approximately 70% of Hong Kong’s port containers require cross-border trucking to the Pearl River Delta hinterland. However, cross-border trucking capacity is constrained by customs clearance efficiency and road capacity. During the peak season at the end of 2025, truck queues around the Kwai Chung container terminals reached up to 5 kilometers, with average waiting times for truck entry exceeding 2 hours. More severe is the shortage of local Hong Kong truck drivers. As of October 2025, the driver shortfall reached 3,000, causing some containers to remain uncollected after unloading, worsening yard pressure. Additionally, the impact of natural factors and policy changes cannot be ignored. Typhoon “Coral” in November 2025 caused a 36-hour port closure, backlogging 40,000 TEUs. Hong Kong Customs intensified inspections for dangerous and high-value goods, raising the inspection ratio from 5% to 8%, with some cargo clearance times extending to 36 hours.
Adjustments in the global trade landscape affect Hong Kong’s port cargo flow in the long term. In recent years, the share of cargo from emerging markets in Asia, Africa, and Latin America increased from 25% to 40%. However, vessel scheduling efficiency on these routes is lower, with average berthing times 1.5 days longer than Europe and America routes, further dragging down port turnaround efficiency. Geopolitical events like the Russia-Ukraine conflict, causing energy price fluctuations and increased trade barriers, have heightened global supply chain uncertainty. As an intermediate hub, Hong Kong’s port becomes a concentrated release point for various risks.
III. The Path to Resolution: Building a Resilient Supply Chain to Break the Port Congestion Deadlock
For Hong Kong’s port to break free from the year-end “bottleneck” dilemma, it requires not only its own upgrade but also a holistic supply chain approach. Building a more resilient global trade通道 necessitates infrastructure upgrades, deeper regional coordination, digital transformation, and policy support.
(A) Short-term Response: Easing Congestion, Ensuring Smooth Supply Chains
In the short term, focus should be on emergency疏导 during peak season congestion, rapidly alleviating supply chain “blockages” through process optimization and resource allocation. At the port operational level, implement a “24/7 non-stop operation” model to increase handling equipment efficiency, reducing per-container handling time from 3 minutes to 2.5 minutes. Simultaneously, expand truck buffer zones and implement a “container pickup appointment” system to reduce road congestion around terminals. Hong Kong Police and Transport Department could draw on the successful experience of the “queuing ticket system” implemented after a 2002 typhoon, using phased release and dynamic regulation to enhance cross-border transport efficiency.
At the customs and regulatory level, promote a dual-track solution of “smart监管 + model optimization.” Drawing on innovative practices from Doumen Customs (under Gongbei Customs), construct a multi-dimensional monitoring system combining “loading videos + vessel AIS trajectories” to achieve end-to-end visual监管 from pre-loading to transit, eliminating the “unload then reload”环节 for certain cargo, saving about 8 hours loading/unloading time per voyage and reducing transport costs by 30%. Concurrently, accelerate the implementation of the Port Community System (PCS) to enable real-time information sharing among shipping lines, terminals, customs, shippers, etc., moving processes like manifest declaration and customs declaration online to shorten cargo clearance time. The Hong Kong SAR Government plans to complete the PCS framework within 2025. The system will utilize AI, big data, and blockchain technology to provide real-time cargo tracking and a “single report for multiple declarations” service, facilitating报关 to both Hong Kong and mainland customs.
(B) Mid-term Coordination: Integrating Regional Resources, Optimizing Supply Chain Layout
From a mid-term perspective, deepening coordination within the GBA port cluster is key to resolving Hong Kong’s congestion and enhancing supply chain efficiency. Hong Kong should proactively integrate into the GBA development strategy, establishing clear route分工 with ports like Shenzhen and Guangzhou: Hong Kong focuses on high-value-added international transshipment and sea-air联运; Yantian focuses on Europe and America mainlines; Nansha focuses on domestic trade and Southeast Asia routes, forming a pattern of “complementary advantages and differentiated development.” Specifically, promote the upgrade of the “Shenzhen-Hong Kong Combined Port” model, realizing terminal resource sharing and slot mutual recognition between the two ports to reduce cargo transshipment links. Simultaneously, co-build cross-border logistics channels, increase the frequency of barge routes between Hong Kong and inland Pearl River Delta cities, and divert some cargo for handling at Shenzhen and Guangzhou ports to relieve pressure on Hong Kong.
On the policy front, Hong Kong should accelerate the revision of entrepôt trade-related regulations, extending exemption policies for air transshipment cargo to multimodal联运 like sea-to-air and land-to-air, enhancing entrepôt trade efficiency. Strengthen cooperation with mainland customs, advance customs integration, eliminate information barriers, and achieve “one declaration, one inspection, one release,” improving the smoothness of cross-border logistics. Furthermore, to address the cross-border truck driver shortage, simplify visa procedures and optimize compensation to attract mainland drivers to participate in Hong Kong port cargo transport,弥补 the manpower gap.
(C) Long-term Transformation: Digitalization and Greening, Building a Resilient Port Ecosystem
In the long run, Hong Kong’s port needs to fundamentally enhance supply chain resilience and escape the congestion deadlock through infrastructure upgrades, digital transformation, and green development. Regarding infrastructure,突破 land resource limitations by exploring options like land reclamation or terminal upgrade/expansion to add 1-2 deep-water berths, increasing annual handling capacity to over 25 million TEUs. Simultaneously, increase investment in automated equipment, raising the automated quay crane ratio to 50%,引入 AI intelligent dispatch systems to optimize yard layout and vessel berthing sequences, improving overall operational efficiency.
Digital transformation is the core lever for enhancing supply chain resilience. Fully apply blockchain, IoT, and other technologies to build a “smart port” ecosystem: use blockchain for cargo provenance and immutable records,降低 inspection costs; utilize IoT devices for real-time monitoring of container location, temperature, humidity, etc.,提升 cargo transport safety; leverage big data analytics to predict cargo flow peaks and pre-allocate resources. Furthermore, promote the对接 of Hong Kong with other world ports and global shipping data platforms,打通 trade flows and capital flows, accelerating shipping and economic development through digital leadership.
Green transformation is equally indispensable. Expand the application scope of electric terminal trucks, aiming for full electrification of short-haul transport within port areas by 2030. Advance the “Carbon Neutral Shipping” initiative, build green fuel bunkering facilities, attract environmentally friendly vessels to call, and enhance the port’s sustainable competitiveness. As a global shipping center, Hong Kong should play a leading role in green shipping, promoting the industry’s low-carbon transition through policy incentives and industry collaboration, while mitigating supply chain risks arising from environmental policy adjustments.
(D) Policy and Industry Coordination: Consolidating Forces for Breakthrough
Resolving Hong Kong’s port congestion deadlock requires multi-party coordination among government, industry, and enterprises. The Hong Kong SAR Government should increase investment in port infrastructure, optimize tax incentives for the shipping industry to attract more vessel registrations and shipping companies. Strengthen cooperation with international ports, expand emerging businesses like green fuel bunkering and ship finance, and diversify revenue streams. At the industry level, shipping lines, terminal operators, and shippers should establish long-term cooperation mechanisms, using tools like “long-term transportation agreements” and “flexible slot contracts” to stabilize cargo flow节奏, avoiding congestion caused by concentrated shipments during peak seasons.
At the enterprise level, foreign trade companies should optimize supply chain layouts, adopting a “multi-port backup” strategy to reduce dependence on a single port. Strengthen cooperation with freight forwarders,甄别 unscrupulous forwarders to avoid恶意 price gouging. Furthermore, enterprises should enhance supply chain management capabilities, promptly monitor port dynamics and policy changes, and flexibly adjust shipment plans to mitigate congestion-related risks. As Liang Shiyun summarized from industry experience: “Understand policies, communicate promptly with customers about situations, have clarity on the flow of goods, payments, and freight, and ensure all export declaration documents and order contracts are in order. Only then can you stand firm in a chaotic market.”
Conclusion
The year-end congestion at Hong Kong’s ports is a concentrated manifestation of the global supply chain “bottleneck” effect. It exposes the shortcomings of traditional shipping hubs in infrastructure, regional coordination, and digital transformation, while highlighting the fragility of global supply chains. As an international shipping center, Hong Kong’s core advantages lie in its free port policy, robust legal system, and globally connected shipping network—advantages that ports like Shenzhen and Guangzhou cannot easily replicate in the short term. In the *Xinhua-Baltic International Shipping Centre Development Index Report (2025)*, Hong Kong ranked fifth globally, following Singapore, London, Shanghai, and Dubai, underscoring its continued importance in the global shipping network.
Moving forward, Hong Kong’s port needs to adopt a “systems thinking” approach to破解 the congestion deadlock: ensure supply chain smoothness through short-term emergency疏导; optimize resource allocation via mid-term regional coordination; and build a resilient ecosystem through long-term digital and green transformation. Only then can it break the global supply chain “bottleneck,” consolidate its status as an international shipping center, truly play its core role as the GBA’s international shipping hub, and provide solid support for the stable development of global trade. In today’s era of profound adjustment in the globalization landscape, Hong Kong port’s transformation concerns not only its own development but also has far-reaching implications for the resilience and efficiency of the global supply chain. Only by突破 the “congestion”困境 can it maintain leadership in global port competition, allowing Hong Kong to continue serving as the vital “trade bridge” connecting Asia-Pacific with the world.