由 caicai8478 In recent years, China’s implementation of export control policies on some sensitive goods (such as rare earths and high-tech materials) has triggered strong reactions from Western countries and prompted a series of trade bargaining and strategic adjustments. The following are the main reactions and bargaining strategies of Western countries:
- The United States: high tariffs and supply chain restructuring
Imposing high tariffs: The United States imposes anti-dumping duties of 86.24%-504.07% on some Chinese goods (such as hardwood plywood, low-speed electric vehicles, slag barrels, etc.), and even individual companies have tax rates as high as 1157.53%1.
De-Sinicization of the supply chain: The United States is trying to rebuild the rare earth industry chain, but it faces technical bottlenecks (such as dependence on China for refining) and time costs (it takes 5-10 years to form independent production capacity)2.
Pressure in negotiations: In the Sino-US trade negotiations, the United States asked China to relax rare earth export controls and tried to relax some chip export restrictions in exchange46.
- EU: Double standards and strategic vacillation
Accusing China of “overcapacity”: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen accused China of “unfair subsidies” and “weaponization of rare earths” at the G7 summit, and called for supply chain diversification8.
Internal contradictions: German car companies rely on Chinese rare earths, while France compromised with China due to the brandy anti-dumping investigation. The overall EU policy oscillates between “toughness on China” and “pragmatic cooperation”310.
Trying to use a technical path to replace the tariff war: The EU proposed a “technical path” plan to try to ease the electric vehicle dispute without directly canceling tariffs3.
- Joint pressure and supply chain alliance
G7 coordinated action: Western countries tried to build a “critical mineral supply chain alliance” through the G7 framework to reduce their dependence on Chinese rare earths8.
Participation of allies such as Australia and Canada: The United States has pushed its allies to increase rare earth mining, but it still cannot replace the Chinese supply chain in the short term (for example, Australia’s rare earth production is less than 10% of the world)2.
- China’s countermeasures and strategic response
Rare earths are “open for civilian use, but banned for military use”: China has issued temporary rare earth export licenses to US automakers, but has strictly restricted military use to ensure that strategic resources are not used in the military field2.
Precise countermeasures: China has imposed targeted trade restrictions on EU brandy, US agricultural products, etc., forcing the West to make concessions35.
Promoting re-export trade: Chinese companies have circumvented high tariffs through re-exports from third countries such as Malaysia, maintaining exports to the US and European markets79.
- Future direction of the game
Possible short-term compromise: China and the United States may reach a limited agreement on rare earths and chips, but the long-term “decoupling” trend is difficult to reverse6.
The EU’s dilemma: If it continues to follow the US in being tough on China, it may lose the Chinese market; if it turns to cooperation, it will face pressure from the United States10.
Reshaping the global supply chain: Western countries are accelerating the autonomy of key minerals, but they still rely on China’s supply chain in the short term28.
Conclusion
Western countries have reacted strongly to China’s export policy of sensitive commodities, but they are constrained by their dependence on the supply chain and it is difficult to completely “decouple”. China maintains the initiative through precise control, trade countermeasures and strategic negotiations. The future game will revolve around the control of resources, technological barriers and the dominance of global trade rules, forming a complex pattern of “both competition and cooperation”.